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DECIDE: Combat Momentum
I liked your article - that "might" makes a BIG difference.
As a person with fighting experience (karate blackbelt, 2nd and 3rd places in regional tournaments here in Japan), I have to add something:
I never saw the good hits coming. People with high skills levels just outclassed me - I had to keep in a defensive posture, wait and attack and try to get lucky.
This reality is reflected in GM language, which as you said should extend as far as "He attacks you. What do you do?" without mentioning whether the attack will succeed or fail. However, characters with over 18 in combat skill or over 10 points higher than their attacker should be able to ‘see’ hits coming or missing.
As for the rest of characters, I figure that whoever reacts faster will have what I call combat momentum and keep attacking until
1 He fumbles an attack
2 He is distracted (hit from the side, etc)
3 He is critically defended against (momentum passes to the defender)
Basically, I would give players being attacked 3 options:
1 Take it and Attack – If it misses, or it hits and they are still standing, they can attack.
2 All-Out Defence – Player rolls his FULL combat skill as defense. On a critical success (or attacker’s critical failure) they can retaliate.
3 Defensive Posture – Player rolls defense at 2/3 of skill. If successful, can retaliate at 2/3 of skill.
Seems simpler this way, and represents the reality I felt.
As for against guns, All-Out Defense would seem the only logical action. I doubt anybody playing paintball or stuck in a real-life shootout waits around to see if they are hit before returning fire.
Hope that helps!